There is a 27.5% chance of a pandemic as deadly as Covid-19 occurring in the next decade as viruses emerge more frequently, according to a predictive health analytics firm.
Climate change, the scale of international travel, population growth and the threat posed by zoonotic diseases all contribute to the risk, according to London-based Airfinity Ltd.
But if effective vaccines are released 100 days after the discovery of a new pathogen, the probability of a pandemic becoming deadly drops to 8.1 percent.
In a worst-case scenario, a bird flu virus that mutates to allow human-to-human transmission could kill up to 15,000 people in the UK in a single day, Airfinity claims.
Many high-risk pathogens, such as MERS and Zika, do not have approved vaccines or treatments, and existing surveillance policies cannot detect a new pandemic in a timely manner, underscoring the urgent need for pandemic preparedness measures, Airfinity said according to the Bloomberg publication.
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