The 2024 presidential election will be the most boring in American history

For those who write about electoral politics or the “horse race,” few things are more enjoyable than an exciting presidential primary season.

Sometimes both Democrats and Republicans cooperate in exciting battles for party approval (see 2008). Sometimes, however, voters in both parties quickly rally around favorites.

A look at the current dynamics in both parties suggests that 2024 could be one of the most, if not the most boring, primary cycles in the last 50 years, CNN’s Harry Enten reports.

Nothing is set in stone. Things can change when you least expect it, but it’s hard not to recognize the current facts.

Let’s start on the Democratic side, where President Joe Biden is expected to announce as early as Tuesday that he is running for re-election. No sitting president has lost a state primary (where he was on the ballot) since 1980.

Right now, Biden doesn’t seem likely to break that streak. He did not attract a challenger that would be considered serious under most parameters. Neither Marianne Williamson nor Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have ever held elected office. Williamson has not gained traction during his 2020 presidential bid. Kennedy supports debunked conspiracy theories about vaccine safety and seeks votes from an electorate that is largely vaccinated against Covid-19.

Very limited polling so far shows Biden with a wide lead over Williamson and Kennedy.

Perhaps more importantly, few Democratic elected officials have indicated anything but loyalty to Biden’s candidacy in 2024. This is key for a few reasons.

First, primary approvals are as good a predictor at this point of primary success as polling is.

Second, it is true that Democratic primary voters are telling pollsters that they are open to listening to a credible challenger to Biden. After all, the president would be 82 years old at the start of a potential second term.

But, as Billy Preston sang, “Nothing from nothing leaves nothing.” This hypothetical poll means nothing if no one with a base within the party is running.

Biden’s strong approval rating among Democrats is consistent with previous claims headed for renomination. So it’s not like Democratic voters will be kicking and screaming if they have to back Biden for another term.

On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump is in his best position in a long time to win the GOP nomination.

I don’t know of a single recent national confidence poll or early state poll that shows Trump with anything but a “big league” lead over declared and potential opponents in 2024. He is regularly at approximately 50% in national surveys.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the America First Policy Institute’s America First Agenda Summit in Washington, DC, U.S., Tuesday, July 26, 2022. Trump’s comments follow a House hearing that showed him standing regardless , even vindictive, for hours as crowds of supporters battled police and chased lawmakers through the halls of the Capitol.

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That 50% is critical because it is so rare for someone to vote at that level this early and not win the nomination. Bob Dole in 1996, George W. Bush in 2000, Al Gore in 2000, and Hillary Clinton in 2016 were the only non-incumbent primary candidates who were near, at, or above 50% in early national polls.

All four managed to secure the nominations with relative ease, and Clinton was the only one to lose more than a handful of primary contests.

For an example of someone who votes like Trump occasionally losing the party’s nomination, you only have to look at primaries involving an incumbent. Ted Kennedy lost the 1980 Democratic primary to President Jimmy Carter, despite easily leading him in the polls at this point in the cycle.

It’s possible that since Trump is the first former president to actively seek the presidential nomination in more than 80 years, early national polling means less than normal.

That said, Trump has more going for him than national polls. First, his early statewide polls look as good as they have in a while. A University of New Hampshire poll released last week has him 20 points ahead of Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical Granite State GOP primary, after trailing the Florida governor by 12 points in January.

That poll is buoyed by something that eluded Trump when he first ran for president in 2015: support from elected officials. Trump did not receive his first from a governor or member of Congress until after he won his first primary contest during the 2016 cycle.

This time, Trump already has over 60 endorsements from governors and members of Congress. Since 1980, candidates with comparable collections of gubernatorial and congressional approvals at this point in the cycle have continued to win their parties’ nominations.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during a book tour at Adventure Outdoors gun store in Smyrna, Georgia, on March 30.
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Most impressive is what Trump did in Florida. DeSantis would be by far Trump’s most serious challenger if he decides to run. He is the only one breaking into double digits in the national and early state average polls.

However, Trump went to Florida and already secured the support of the majority of Republicans in the state’s delegation in the US Parliament. Some of these endorsements are not surprising (eg Rep. Matt Gaetz). Some of them are notable, such as Rep. Byron Donalds, who introduced DeSantis to his party for a 2022 re-election victory.

Trump, like Biden, seems to have two things going for him: a large portion of Republican voters and the party behind him. If the two had been in opposition to each other, the primary season would have looked much more interesting.

So, unless something changes, we’re looking at a recipe for primary success for both the current president and the man he succeeded.