The United States believes that Ukraine has little chance of defeating Russia and is considering a frozen conflict

Among the options discussed within the Biden administration in the event of a frozen conflict is where possible lines should be established that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which should not be official borders. The discussions, although provisional, took place in various American agencies and at the White House, informs POLITICO.

It’s a scenario that may prove the most realistic long-term outcome, given that neither Kiev nor Moscow seem inclined to ever admit defeat. It is also becoming increasingly likely, amid the growing sentiment within the US administration, that a future Ukrainian counteroffensive will not deal a decisive blow to Russia.

A frozen conflict, in which fighting stops but neither side is declared victorious, nor does it agree that the war is officially over, could also be a politically acceptable long-term outcome for the United States and other Western countries that support Ukraine.

This would mean that the number of military confrontations, the costs of supporting Kiev and public attention to the war would decrease.

The United States is making long-term plans

“We’re planning for the long term, regardless of whether the situation seems frozen or thawed,” said an American official familiar with the Biden administration’s discussions on Ukraine, while in past months “it was all about emergencies and short-term planning.”

Two other US officials and a former Biden administration official confirmed that a freeze in the conflict is a possibility for which the US is preparing. American officials are also considering the long-term security ties Washington will have with Kiev, as well as Ukraine’s relationship with the NATO military alliance.

“There is a school of thought that says: . There are others who are less attached to the location of the lines, as long as Ukraine is safe in the future,” the former administration official said, describing the internal conversations.

While many US officials avoid talking publicly about how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will play out, the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, has repeatedly predicted that the war will end with negotiations, not a military victory by either side. part.

Currently, Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive against Russia, although the timing remains unclear. In recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested that this counteroffensive will be delayed because Ukraine needs more weapons from its Western partners, while saying that “the first important steps will be taken soon.”

Frozen conflicts

Some American officials and analysts say that a suggestive model could be the Korean War. Active fighting in this conflict ended with an armistice in 1953, but even after 70 years, the war has not officially ended.

“A Korean-style ceasefire is certainly something that has been discussed by experts and analysts inside and outside of government” when it comes to Ukraine, the former Biden administration official said. “It is plausible because neither side should recognize new borders and the only thing that should be agreed upon would be a ceasefire along an established line.” Negotiations for the armistice in Korea lasted two years.

Other relevant examples include the 2008 dispute between Georgia and Russia over two provinces; the more than 70-year standoff between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region, a period that includes three wars separated by long cold spells; and perhaps even segments of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine between 2014 and 2022, fought over parts of eastern Ukraine and the Crimea region.

Such interrupted wars occasionally resume: A 1994 ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region held until heavy fighting shattered the peace in 2020. The two countries are now trying to negotiate.

Western involvement also varies in each case. The United States fought in the Korean War and still has thousands of troops in South Korea, a key difference from Ukraine, where American forces are not fighting. But Washington has played a minor role in other conflicts, such as Kashmir.